Bitcoin Analysis for Next Week starts with a shock. The $6.3 billion Binance hack hit on Thursday and Bitcoin dropped 4.3% in a single day. It closed the week down 2.24%.
Last week we said $76,000 was the next level to watch. Bitcoin came very close, hitting $76,189.88 before buyers stepped in. That support has held for now.
The bigger picture is mixed. The weekly trend is still up but the daily trend is down. The hack gave an already nervous market another reason to sell. But the bigger problem is trust. Institutions are moving coins off exchanges and Bitcoin ETFs just recorded their biggest outflow since June.
The next two events to watch are the US midterm elections on 3 November and US jobs data on 6 November. Let's look at what broke, what held and what could change our view.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin fell 2.24% after the Binance hack knocked the rally off track.
- ETFs attracted $440.8 million over four sessions before losing $643.2 million in a single day. Buyers are not showing much conviction.
- Institutions are pulling coins off exchanges. This is a trust problem and fixing it will take longer than recovering the price.
- Liquidations hit $1.57 billion and Fear and Greed fell to 36. Fear is rising but we are not seeing extreme panic yet.
Bitcoin Analysis for Next Week: Bitcoin Holds Just Above 76,000
Bitcoin started the week on a positive note. Buyers defended the $80,000 zone and pushed the price higher for three consecutive sessions. The rally looked healthy and momentum was building.
Then Thursday changed everything. The Binance hack triggered heavy selling and wiped out the week's gains in a single session. Bitcoin also failed to break through the resistance zone we had identified in our technical analysis.
But the reaction after the fall is worth watching. Instead of panic selling, Bitcoin stabilised and recovered slightly over the next three sessions. Buyers stepped in near support but the recovery lacked strength.
The important takeaway is that the $76,000 support we flagged last week held despite heavy selling. Bitcoin came very close to breaking it but buyers defended the level.
Sellers clearly controlled the week but the market has not given up its key support yet. Next week's price action will tell us whether this was just a temporary shock or the start of another leg down.
Bitcoin Analysis for Next Week: The Binance Hack, Not the Fed, Broke the Rally
The main driver this week was trust, not macro. The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4% on Wednesday and two members actually wanted a hike. Bitcoin still closed higher that day. Buyers were willing to look past a hawkish Fed.
Then Binance dropped the $6.3 billion hack news. Bitcoin fell 4.3% on Thursday and hit its weekly low during the fallout. The Fed had already made markets nervous but the hack gave sellers a clear reason to exit.
Why did a hack at one exchange hit the entire crypto market? Because this is about counterparty risk. If the world's biggest exchange can be compromised, every large holder starts asking whether their own coins are safe. That fear spreads quickly across the market. Ether, BNB and DeFi tokens were sold along with Bitcoin.
We had already flagged a test of $76,000 last week. The hack simply accelerated the move.
For Bitcoin Analysis for Next Week, the real question is whether confidence returns quickly or exchange withdrawals continue. Price can recover in a few sessions. Rebuilding trust takes much longer.
Bitcoin Analysis for Next Week: One Day Erased Four Days of Buying
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $202.4 million this week, reversing last week's $301.2 million of inflows. Over two weeks, net inflows were just $98.8 million. ETF money has barely moved while Bitcoin fell from above $84,000 to below $78,000.
The daily numbers tell a worse story. Monday to Thursday brought in $440.8 million: $110.3 million, $176 million, $137.3 million and $17.2 million. Then Friday wiped it all out with $643.2 million in outflows. That was the biggest single-day withdrawal since 25 June. Four days of buying were erased in one session.
Thursday is particularly interesting. Bitcoin fell 4.3% but ETFs attracted just $17.2 million. Dip buyers did not show up in size. Instead, investors waited until Friday and pulled their money out.
IBIT lost $233.7 million and Fidelity's FBTC lost $201.4 million. Together they accounted for roughly two-thirds of the outflows. Even the biggest ETF buyers are stepping back.
The damage goes beyond this week's numbers. The outflow wiped out 63.6% of this year's net ETF inflows, leaving just over $350 million. Total ETF assets also fell below $100 billion to $98.14 billion.
Coinbase Premium remained negative. This measures the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges. A negative reading suggests US spot buyers are not showing strong demand.
Last week we said we needed several consecutive days of inflows before calling it genuine buying. We got four days of inflows followed by one massive exit. That is exactly the problem.
For Bitcoin ETF flow analysis next week, we need inflows that can survive a bad market day. Until then ETF money is a short-term trade, not a reliable support for Bitcoin. You can cross-check weekly fund flows on the Farside.
Bitcoin Analysis for Next Week: News That Moved the Market
Binance Suffers Record $6.3 Billion Hack and Suspends Withdrawals
Binance is dealing with the largest crypto theft in history, with losses estimated between $5.9 billion and $6.3 billion. Early findings suggest hackers may have gained access through a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop. Security firms also suspect North Korean groups including TraderTraitor and Lazarus. Around $3 billion in assets, including USDT and USDC, has reportedly been frozen. Withdrawals were suspended during the investigation and co-CEO Yi He promised to cover all losses. The bigger problem is trust. An exchange can recover money faster than it can recover its reputation.
Institutions Pull Crypto Off Exchanges After the Binance Breach
Institutional investors are withdrawing crypto from centralised exchanges, with concerns spreading beyond Binance. The $6.3 billion hack has pushed large investors to reassess exchange custody risks. Hacks and exploits cost the crypto industry $1.28 billion in Q3 2026, up nearly 56% from Q2. The Binance incident alone was almost five times that amount. Institutions can manage price volatility but custody risk is harder to accept. Unlike normal exchange outflows, these withdrawals appear driven by security concerns rather than long-term holding plans. If sustained, lower exchange balances could thin order books and make sharp price swings more likely in both directions.
Crypto Liquidations Jump to $1.57 Billion as Traders Rush for Downside Protection
Crypto futures liquidations jumped more than 3.5 times to $1.57 billion from $431.1 million last week. Futures volume also surged 74% to $346.1 billion, but open interest fell just 3%. That tells us leverage has not left the market. New positions are replacing those wiped out through liquidations. Meanwhile, demand for BTC and ETH put options has increased, showing traders are paying to protect against further downside. The market is still leveraged and increasingly hedged. That combination can fuel sharp moves in either direction.
Bitcoin Analysis for Next Week: Bitcoin Technical Analysis
The key support is $76,000. The 50-week EMA also sits around this level. Below $76,000, there is no major support until roughly $60,000, which would mean another 21% fall. That makes $76,000 critical for the larger trend. To confirm a recovery, we want a strong green weekly candle that covers at least a couple of the recent red candles.
The daily chart tells a different story. Bitcoin failed to hold $80,000 and dropped around 4% following the Binance news. The daily trend remains down, with clear lower highs and lower lows. Red candles are large and strong, while green candles are small and weak. Sellers are still in control.
The 200-day EMA is also near $76,000. This puts three important supports around the same level: horizontal support, the 50-week EMA and the 200-day EMA.
The first sign of support holding would be a quick bounce from $76,000. If Bitcoin keeps hovering around this level, it suggests buyers are struggling to absorb selling pressure. For a daily trend reversal, we need price to stop making lower lows and start forming higher highs. The next major hurdle is $82,000, which Bitcoin missed by just $110 during last week's rally.
Until $76,000 breaks, the market remains in a downtrend-to-sideways phase. There is no reason to rush into buying against the daily trend. We want to see a quick bounce from support, followed by higher highs. A decisive break below $76,000 would turn this weekly pullback into a deeper correction.
Bitcoin Analysis for Next Week: Patience, Not Panic
The market view is simple. Bitcoin's weekly trend is still up, the daily trend is down and the Binance hack has added a trust shock. The likely path is a choppy market between the support and resistance levels discussed above, with another test of support possible. Rallies will continue to face selling pressure until Bitcoin starts making higher highs.
Look at the signals. Institutions are pulling coins off exchanges, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.2 million in single-day outflows and US spot buying remains weak. Buyers have little reason to aggressively defend current prices. The market is not broken, but it needs time to rebuild trust. That usually means more sideways movement or further downside.
ETF inflows need to become consistent. A bounce means little unless buying continues through a bad market day. We want several days of inflows while Bitcoin holds steady before calling demand back. Altcoins are likely to remain under pressure. They usually fall harder on bad news and recover more slowly. Ether is also likely to follow Bitcoin's direction.
Three dates matter next week:
- 3 November - US midterm elections: The results could shift policy expectations around crypto.
- 6 November - US jobs data: A strong report after the Fed's hawkish rate hold could increase rate-hike concerns. A weak report may offer some relief to risk assets.
- 11 November - MSCI announcement: MSCI will announce whether Strategy and Metaplanet will be removed from its indexes. Removal could force index funds to sell their shares and hurt sentiment towards Bitcoin treasury companies. The market may start pricing in this risk before the announcement.
The Binance story is not over. Smoothly restored withdrawals and further recovery of frozen funds would help rebuild confidence. But new security issues or withdrawal delays could push institutional outflows across other exchanges.
There is also a case for a relief rally. The weekly trend remains bullish, recent weekly candles are small and volume is fading. Around $1.57 billion in futures positions has already been liquidated. Bitcoin also closed higher on the day of the Fed's hawkish rate hold, suggesting macro is not the main problem right now. If Binance restores confidence and ETF inflows turn positive for several days, buyers could return.
The recovery signals are clear: a quick bounce from support, followed by higher highs and then a break above the resistance level. A rise in the Fear and Greed Index from 36 would also suggest sentiment is improving.
Our daily bearish view changes when Bitcoin makes a higher high. The weekly bullish view is invalidated by a decisive break below $76,000, which could open the door to a much deeper correction.
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