This week, two things that were holding this market up both broke down at the same time.
The ceasefire that held since April 8 collapsed on Wednesday April 22. Trump extended it without an end date. Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz the same day. Brent crude crossed 101 dollars by Wednesday evening and 105 dollars by Thursday. The oil risk premium is back.
At the same time, IT destroyed 2.5 lakh crore in market cap in five sessions. Nifty IT fell 10%, its worst weekly performance since March 2020. HCL Tech guided 1 to 4% FY27 constant currency growth. Infosys guided 1.5 to 3.5% and watched its ADRs fall 6% on a night it reported 21% profit growth. The market did not sell IT on bad numbers. It sold IT because the guidance confirmed what Wipro already said the week before. US corporate IT budgets are frozen and AI is compressing pricing in real time.
Nifty fell 1.87% to close at 23,897. FIIs sold 17,136 crore for the week including 8,827 crore on Friday alone, the largest single day FII selling since March 30. The rupee hit 94.25 against the dollar, its steepest weekly fall since September 2022.
DIIs bought 9,780 crore and kept the market from falling much harder. The floor held. It did not hold comfortably.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: Nifty Fell 1.87% But the Story Is Not the Index Level.
Two sessions tell the whole story. Tuesday April 21 was the high at 24,576, driven by HDFC Bank earnings and US Iran peace talk optimism. Friday April 24 was the low at 23,897, driven by Infosys guidance, Brent crossing 105 dollars, Iran's top negotiator reportedly resigning, and FIIs selling 8,827 crore in a single day. 679 Nifty points and a complete reversal of the post ceasefire narrative, in four days.
Monday set the tone. Nifty gained just 0.05% but VIX jumped 9.18%. Index up, fear gauge also up. When VIX rises on a positive day, traders are buying protection against a move that has not happened yet. They were right. The market smelled the ceasefire breakdown before it was confirmed.
Wednesday was HCL Tech day. The stock fell more than 10% after guiding FY27 growth at just 1 to 4% constant currency, below every analyst estimate. Infosys fell 3.38% and TechM fell 3.12% the same day. This was not about HCL Tech specifically. It was the market recognising that three consecutive IT majors, Wipro, HCL Tech, and Infosys, had all delivered the same message in different words. US IT spending is not recovering in 2026.
By Thursday, Brent had reclaimed 100 dollars. Iran's foreign minister called the US naval blockade an act of war and seized two container ships in the Strait. Infosys then reported 21% profit growth after market hours and guided 1.5 to 3.5% FY27 revenue growth. The ADRs fell 6% overnight.
Friday's 1.14% fall closed the week below 24,000. FII selling of 8,827 crore on that single day is the largest outflow since March 30. The rupee hit 94.25. VIX added another 6%. All three fear indicators moved in the same direction on the same day. That is not sector rotation. That is institutional risk reduction.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: Bank Nifty Fell Only 0.84% and That Relative Strength Is the Most Important Signal
Bank Nifty fell 0.84% against Nifty's 1.87% decline. In a week where IT destroyed 2.5 lakh crore in market cap, crude crossed 105 dollars, and FIIs sold 17,136 crore, banking lost less than 1%. That outperformance is not random.
The reason is HDFC Bank. Net profit grew 9% to 19,221 crore. NII grew 3.8%. But the number that moved the stock was deposit growth at 14.4 to 15.5% year on year. Bank Nifty gained 1.39% on Tuesday with 13 of 14 constituents in the green. HDFC Bank rose 2.08% and AU Small Finance Bank jumped 4.04% as money rotated out of IT into banking on the same day HCL Tech fell more than 10%.
That rotation matters. Money did not leave the market when HCL Tech crashed. It moved sectors. When institutional selling is sector specific and not broad, the underlying confidence in the rest of the market remains intact.
Thursday partially reversed this. Bank Nifty fell 1.43% as PSU banks led the selloff. Union Bank fell 7.5% as crude crossing 100 dollars raised concerns about NPA risk in energy exposed loan books. Private banks held better. ICICI Bank fell 1.48% and HDFC Bank fell 1.52%, modest compared to Union Bank's 7.5%.
Bank Nifty PCR closed the week at 0.91. Maximum call OI sits at 57,000 and put OI at 56,000. With Bank Nifty at 56,089, the index is sitting just above the put floor. April 28 monthly expiry is next week. Max pain is 56,400. If Bank Nifty breaks 56,000 through expiry, put writers are forced to delta hedge and that adds fresh selling pressure.
The honest view: banking is the one sector that can carry the market higher once the crude rupee loop breaks. HDFC Bank fundamentals are improving, PSU banks are cheap by historical standards, and June rate cut probability has not dropped to zero. If Brent falls back toward 90 dollars, banking re-rates fast.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: IT Fell 10% This Week
The sector data confirms what price already showed this week. This was not a healthy rotation. This was broad weakness with very limited buying.
Energy was the best performing sector at +2.63%. Media followed at +1.56% and Defence was marginally positive at +0.34%. That is a very narrow leadership. Three sectors up, everything else down.
IT fell −10.31%, the worst performing sector by a wide margin. This was not a stock-specific move. This was a full sector reset after consistent weak guidance from large IT companies. The market is pricing slower growth, delayed deal conversion, and pressure on margins.
Auto (−2.96%) and Capital Markets (−2.82%) falling together is important. These are high beta sectors. When they fall this much, it means risk appetite is going down fast. Financial Services (−1.43%) and Realty (−1.13%) also stayed weak. These sectors usually hold better if the market is stable. Their weakness confirms that this is not just IT selling.
Metal (−1.04%) and Oil & Gas (−0.69%) also closed in red despite crude moving higher. That tells you the market is not chasing commodities either.
The key takeaway is simple. This is not sector rotation. This is capital becoming cautious. Money is not aggressively moving from one sector to another. It is pulling back overall and only taking selective positions in safer pockets like Energy. When only 2–3 sectors are green and everything else is red, the market is not strong. It is just holding.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: FIIs Sold ₹17,136 Crore and the Rupee Hit 94.25.
One number defines this week. 8,827 crore in net FII selling on Friday April 24. The largest single day FII outflow since March 30 when Bank Nifty breached 50,000. It did not come randomly. Three things aligned at the same time. Infosys guidance disappointed overnight. Brent crossed 105 dollars on Iran's top negotiator's reported resignation. The rupee broke through 94 to hit 94.25.
Here is the chain reaction that produced that number and why it will repeat unless one link breaks.
Brent above 100 dollars means India's annual import bill rises by roughly 90,000 to 1,00,000 crore per 10 dollars above pre war levels. That bill is paid in dollars. Buying dollars to pay for crude weakens the rupee. A weaker rupee means FII returns on Indian equities, when converted back to dollars, are lower. That makes Indian equities less attractive versus US bonds yielding 4.2%. So FIIs sell. More selling weakens the rupee further. This loop has no internal stop.
The external stop is crude falling below 90 dollars. That requires either a diplomatic breakthrough in the Strait or a demand destruction signal from global economies. Neither is imminent.
DII buying of 9,780 crore for the week is what prevented a worse outcome. On Friday alone, DIIs bought 4,700 crore against FII selling of 8,827 crore. DIIs absorbed 53% of Friday's outflow. That is why Nifty fell 1.14% on Friday instead of 3%. SIP money keeps coming. Equity fund inflows in March were 40,500 crore, up 56% from February even during the market's worst month. Domestic flows are the structural floor.
But a floor is not a recovery. Recovery requires FIIs to stop selling or start buying. For that, the rupee needs to stabilise, which requires crude to fall, which requires the Strait to open for real.
Net institutional flow for the week was negative by 7,356 crore despite DII buying. Same pattern as the week of April 13. Domestic flows are sustaining the market. The market cannot rally until international flows turn.
How Many Stocks Were Actually Going Up
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: The F&O Market Is Telling You the Bear Case Has Regained Control
PCR closed the week at 0.68. The most bearish options positioning since the week before March 30. A PCR below 1.0 means call writers outnumber put writers. The options market's collective bet is that the market stays flat or falls. At 0.68, that bearishness is pronounced.
NSE India Weekly expiry on Tuesday April 21 closed at 24,576, above max pain of 24,550. Clean expiry, bullish tone. Four sessions later Nifty is at 23,897. 679 points lower. What happened between Tuesday expiry and Friday close completely reset the options market's view.
Maximum call OI is now at 24,200. Call writers have moved their resistance level down from 24,500 last week to 24,200 this week. When call writers move lower, they are betting any bounce gets contained at a lower level than before. Maximum put OI sits at 24,000. The market is bracketed between 24,000 and 24,200 for the April 28 monthly expiry. Any daily close below 24,000 is not just a technical breach. It triggers put writer delta hedging that adds selling pressure mechanically.
VIX ended the week at 19.71. The rise of vix means the market is pricing a wider range of outcomes. Option premiums are expensive. Fresh hedging is discouraged. Institutional investors who bought puts last week as insurance are sitting on gains.
The April 28 monthly expiry is now a problem. Max pain at 24,000 for Nifty and 56,400 for Bank Nifty means option writers need the market to stay flat or rise. FII selling of 8,827 crore on Friday alone suggests the market is not cooperating. If FIIs continue selling at even half that pace through expiry, put writers lose and are forced to sell futures to delta hedge. That adds more selling pressure on top of existing selling.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: IPO Tracker for April 20 to 26, 2026
Mehul Telecom closed subscription at 9.3 times after opening at 0.0 times on day one. Market cap 102 crore, PE 17.8, ROCE 90%. The surge in final hours reflects retail chasing a high ROCE small cap at the last minute. Sentiment driven, not fundamental driven. A 90% ROCE at 102 crore market cap is genuinely attractive, but the listing fell on Thursday April 24, the same day Infosys ADRs were down 6% overnight and crude was crossing 105 dollars. Good fundamentals, bad timing.
Citius Transnet reached 10 times subscription by Tuesday April 21, having started at 0.0 times on opening day. ROCE 17%. The subscription surge from zero to oversubscribed in four days tracks exactly with the Monday Tuesday market rally. It lists April 29 into a market that has since fallen 679 Nifty points from that Tuesday peak.
Leapfrog Engineering opened on April 23 with no visible uptake on day one. Market cap 326 crore, PE 20, ROCE 46%. Solid ROCE for an engineering company but it opened on the same day HCL Tech crashed and crude rallied. The IPO has until April 27 to build subscription.
Adisoft Technologies reached 1.9 times as of April 23. Market cap 281 crore. No PE or ROCE disclosed publicly. That itself is a yellow flag. Lists April 30.
The IPO tracker this week tells the same story as the last two weeks. Subscription numbers are a direct function of market sentiment on the days the window is open. Fundamentals matter only in sustained bull markets. In a market where Nifty moves 679 points in four days on geopolitical news, IPO subscription reflects the mood of the moment, not a considered view on the business.
| Company | M.Cap (Cr) | P/E | ROCE | Subscription |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mehul Telecom | ₹102 | 17.8 | 90 | 9.3x |
| Citius Transnet | ₹0 | 0 | 17 | 0.3x |
| Leapfrog Engineering | ₹326 | 20.0 | 46 | — |
| Adisoft Technologies | ₹281 | 0 | 0 | 1.9x |
Key Events to Watch Next Week
| Event | Date | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing Production YoY | 28 Apr | N/A | 6.0 |
| Industrial Production YoY | 28 Apr | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| Inflation Rate YoY | 13 May | N/A | 3.40 |
| Balance of Trade | 15 May | N/A | -20.67 |
| HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash | 21 May | N/A | N/A |
| HSBC Services PMI Flash | 21 May | N/A | N/A |
| HSBC Composite PMI Flash | 21 May | N/A | N/A |
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: News That Will Shape the Week Ahead
The Ceasefire Is Extended Without an End Date but Iran Seized Two Ships on the Same Day
Trump extended the ceasefire on Tuesday April 22 without setting an expiry deadline, citing Iran's failure to submit a unified negotiating proposal. The same day, Iran's Revolutionary Guard seized two container ships in the Strait claiming they crossed without authorisation. Brent rose more than 3% to close at 101.91 dollars as it became clear the extension would not lead to more oil exports through the Strait. By Thursday, Brent topped 105 dollars after Iran's top negotiator reportedly resigned under Revolutionary Guard pressure. Iran's foreign minister condemned the US naval blockade as an act of war and a violation of the ceasefire. The Strait handled fewer tankers in the last week of April than in the first week. For India, every 5 dollars of sustained Brent above 90 dollars adds 45,000 to 50,000 crore to the annual import bill. At 105 dollars, India is paying approximately 2,70,000 to 3,00,000 crore more annually than pre war levels. That number is the ceiling on India's recovery story.
IT Sector's Worst Week Since 2020 Is Not About One Quarter. It Is About What US CFOs Are Doing Right Now.
HCL Tech guided FY27 revenue growth at 1 to 4% constant currency, below analyst estimates of 3 to 5%. Management flagged a highly volatile demand environment hit by tariffs and softening discretionary spends. Infosys guided 1.5 to 3.5% FY27 CC growth with margin aspiration of 20 to 22%. Large deal TCV fell to 3.2 billion dollars in Q4 from 4.8 billion dollars in Q3. Client decisions are getting delayed and onboarding of large deals is slowing. The combined guidance from Wipro, HCL Tech, and Infosys tells one story. US and European corporations are freezing discretionary IT approvals while absorbing oil driven cost pressure. AI is simultaneously compressing pricing on traditional services. FY27 revenue growth for Indian IT is built around deal ramp ups converting in H2. If macro improves, that conversion happens on top of a strong pipeline and produces an earnings acceleration. If macro does not improve, the pipeline wins stay on paper until someone approves the spending.
Reliance Q4: Energy Margin Collapse Offsets Consumer Business Growth and the Jio IPO Timeline Advances
Reliance Industries reported Q4 FY26 PAT of 16,971 crore, down 12.55% year on year, as the oil to chemicals segment faced margin compression from the Iran war's disruption to crude sourcing. Revenue grew 13% to 2,98,621 crore. Jio and Reliance Retail both grew strongly with Jio ARPU improving and retail crossing 20,000 stores. For the full year FY26, Reliance became the first Indian company to cross 10 billion dollars in annual profit at 95,610 crore. Mukesh Ambani confirmed the Jio Platforms IPO process is advancing with DRHP filing expected in May. The Jio IPO is a potential market catalyst that goes beyond Reliance itself. When one of the world's largest telecom IPOs hits a market that has lost 15% from its peak, institutional buyers get a forced allocation reason to return to Indian equities. That is a structural positive for FII flows the market has not yet priced.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap Outlook: Nifty at 23,897 Is Back at a Decision Point
Nifty closed the week at 23,897. Bank Nifty at 56,089. VIX at 19.71. Rupee at 94.
Same conditions as the week of March 30, except Nifty is 1,566 points higher. Whether that premium is deserved comes down to one thing. Does the Strait of Hormuz situation improve before the June RBI meeting or not?
The ceasefire extension is hollow. Iran seized two ships on Wednesday. Israel's defence minister said Jerusalem was waiting for a green light to resume the war. Iran's top negotiator reportedly resigned due to Revolutionary Guard interference. Tanker traffic in the Strait remains light. Brent at 101 to 105 dollars is the new ceiling on how far this market can rally. At 100 dollars plus crude, the RBI cannot cut in June, the rupee stays weak above 93, and FIIs continue to see Indian equities as unattractive relative to US bonds yielding 4.2%.
The June 3 RBI meeting is now the most important watchpoint. The April 8 minutes released on Wednesday showed the MPC concerned about supply side inflation from crude but maintaining a neutral stance. With Brent now above 101 dollars after those minutes were written, the case for a June cut has weakened materially. If Brent averages above 100 dollars through May, the April CPI print due May 13 will likely show headline inflation accelerating toward 4.5 to 5%. A June cut in that environment is off the table.
April 28 monthly expiry creates near term mechanical pressure. Max pain for Nifty is 24,000 and for Bank Nifty is 56,400. Both indices are below those levels. Put writers face losses and need to hedge. Expiry mechanics and FII selling momentum are both pointing in the same direction going into next week.
Base case, 50% probability - Crude oscillates between 98 and 107 dollars. Ceasefire holds in name but Strait remains restricted. Nifty ranges between 23,500 and 24,200. The market grinds sideways with selling on every bounce.
Bull case, 20% probability - A genuine diplomatic breakthrough reopens the Strait. Brent falls toward 88 to 90 dollars. June rate cut probability rises above 60%. FIIs resume buying. Bank Nifty squeezes toward 58,000 as the HDFC Bank re-rating completes and April series shorts face a squeeze.
Bear case, 30% probability - Military activity resumes after the ceasefire extension. Brent crosses 110 dollars. Rupee breaks 95. FII selling accelerates. Nifty tests 22,500 to 23,000, the next meaningful support cluster below current levels. This is the scenario the market is now pricing at 30% given VIX at 19.71 versus the 13 to 15 range of pre war conditions.
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