This Indian Market Weekly Wrap covers March 8 to 14, 2026, the worst week for Dalal Street in four years. Nifty fell 5.31% across five sessions, from 24,450 to 23,151. The Sensex dropped 5.5%, losing 4,355 points, its steepest weekly fall since May 2020. Investors lost an estimated Rs 20 lakh crore for the week.
The driver was relentless. Crude oil hit $119.5 per barrel intraweek as the US-Iran conflict showed no signs of resolution. The rupee fell to a fresh record low of 92.39 against the dollar on Friday March 13. FIIs sold Rs 35,052 crore across five sessions. There was no sector safe from the selling except FMCG and gas stocks.
The only positive session of the week was Tuesday March 10, when Trump's comments about a possible quick end to the Iran war triggered a 0.70% bounce. That bounce was fully erased by Wednesday. By Friday, Nifty had closed below 23,200 for the first time since May 2025.
Here is the full session breakdown of this Indian Market Weekly Wrap.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: What Nifty Did From March 9 to 13
Nifty entered the week carrying forward the damage from the previous week. The prior Friday close was 24,450.45, and Monday opened with a gap down.
Monday March 9 was a bloodbath. NSE India data showed Nifty hit an intraday low of 23,697 before closing at 23,854.45, down 2.44% on the day. Only 2 of 50 stocks closed positive. HCL Tech gained 0.38% and Wipro added 0.15%. Every other Nifty constituent was in the red. IndiGo fell 5.84%, SBI dropped 5.38%, and Tata Motors PV lost 5.06%. The Nifty 500 showed just 15 advancing against 485 declining, a ratio of 0.03, one of the most bearish breadth readings in recent memory. Crude had crossed $100 per barrel and the market was in panic mode.
Tuesday March 10 brought the only relief of the week. Trump commented that the Iran conflict could end soon, which triggered a sharp reversal in crude prices. Brent fell from above $100 back toward $90 intraday. Nifty rebounded 0.70% to close at 24,196.10. Breadth flipped dramatically, 36 of 50 stocks advanced, ratio 2.57. Shriram Finance surged 5.55%, IndiGo recovered 3.33%, and Eichermot gained 2.60%. VIX dropped 13.83% on the day, signalling reduced fear. It was a genuine relief rally, but it did not last.
Wednesday March 11 gave back most of Tuesday's gains. Nifty fell 0.66% to 24,102. Only 15 of 50 stocks advanced. M&M fell 2.20%, Axis Bank dropped 2.10%, and Bajaj Finance lost 1.95%. Reliance rose 2% on Trump's announcement of a $300 billion refinery project with Mukesh Ambani's backing, which provided brief support to the index.
Thursday March 12 continued the slide. Nifty fell another 0.54% to 23,738.60. Only 12 stocks advanced. Coal India led with a 3.12% gain. M&M fell 3.34% and Eicher Motors dropped 2.67%. The CPI inflation data for February came in at 3.21%, above the prior month's 2.75% and above market forecasts of 3.10%. Nomura issued a note saying the RBI is unlikely to cut rates further given oil-driven inflation risks.
Friday March 13 was the worst session of the week. Nifty fell 2.06% to close at 23,151.10, its lowest close since May 2025. Only 3 stocks advanced. LT fell 7.38%, Hindalco lost 6.07%, and Tata Steel dropped 5.41%. The Sensex closed at 74,563.92, down 1,471 points on the day alone. Six Sensex stocks hit 52-week lows. The rupee breached its previous record low and settled at 92.39 against the dollar.
For the week, Nifty fell 1,299 points, its biggest weekly fall in four years.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: What Bank Nifty Did This Week
Bank Nifty had one of its worst weeks in over a year. The index fell 6.28% from 57,783 to 54,156 across five sessions, losing 3,627 points.
Monday March 9 set the tone. Bank Nifty crashed 3.52% to 55,749.90. No Bank Nifty constituent closed positive. SBI fell 5.38%, Union Bank dropped 5.17%, and Federal Bank lost 4.97%. The concern driving banking stocks was direct, higher crude means higher inflation, which delays RBI rate cuts, which pressures bank NIMs and raises NPL risks on consumer credit.
Tuesday's relief rally briefly helped. Bank Nifty recovered 1.41% to 56,812.45. Federal Bank gained 2.23%, ICICI Bank rose 2.14%, and Union Bank added 1.65%. It was the only positive session of the week for the index.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday saw consistent selling. Bank Nifty fell 0.92%, 0.79%, and 1.71% on those three days respectively. By Friday close at 54,156, the index had recorded its worst weekly decline in 14 months per NSE data. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Axis Bank were the primary drags across the week.
The PCR for Bank Nifty closed Friday at 0.75 with max pain at 54,100. Resistance is at 55,000 and support at 53,500. The March 30 expiry remains the key options battleground, significant open interest is stacked at the 54,000 strike on both calls and puts.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: Sector Winners and Losers This Week
The sector picture this week was almost entirely red. The only two areas that avoided the carnage were FMCG and gas stocks, and for very different reasons.
FMCG was a relative safe haven. Hindustan Unilever gained 1.77% on Friday and Tata Consumer rose 1.63%. When markets are selling everything cyclical, consumer staples attract flows as a defensive alternative. FMCG was the only Nifty sector to close the week in positive territory.
Gas stocks were the outlier story. Adani Total Gas surged nearly 39% across four sessions, its biggest multi-day rally in years. The government issued the Natural Gas Supply Regulation Order 2026, prioritising gas supply for PNG and CNG users amid fears of LNG shipment disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. GAIL also rallied sharply. The policy intervention turned a supply crisis into a price catalyst for listed gas distributors.
On the losing side, Auto was the worst performing major sector, down 10.6% for the week, its steepest weekly fall since COVID. IndiGo crashed multiple sessions. M&M fell over 5% across the week. Rising crude directly hits airline fuel costs and squeezes auto demand assumptions going forward.
Bank and financials followed with 7% and 5.7% weekly losses respectively. Metal fell 5.9%, Tata Steel and Hindalco led declines. Realty dropped 4.5%. IT fell approximately 2.5%, extending what analysts are now calling an 8-week losing streak for the Nifty IT index. BSE data showed TCS and Infosys among six Sensex stocks hitting fresh 52-week lows on Friday.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: Where FII and DII Money Went
This was the heaviest week of FII selling since the Iran war began. Total net FII outflows across five sessions reached Rs 35,052 crore, the highest weekly total in months.
The daily breakdown tells the story of escalating exits. Monday March 9 saw FIIs sell Rs 6,345.57 crore net. Tuesday's bounce brought a partial reduction to Rs 4,672.64 crore in net selling. Wednesday March 11 resumed with Rs 6,267.31 crore in outflows. Thursday March 12 accelerated to Rs 7,049.87 crore. Then Friday March 13 saw the worst single-session FII selling of the week at Rs 10,716.64 crore net, one of the heaviest single-day outflows of 2026.
The rupee felt every one of these exits. It fell to a record low of 92.39 on Friday. A MUFG report published during the week warned that if crude holds at $100 per barrel, the dollar-rupee rate could reach 95.50 by year-end. In a more severe $120-plus crude scenario, the rupee could test 97.50.
Domestic institutions absorbed the selling throughout the week. DIIs bought Rs 9,013.80 crore on Monday, Rs 6,333.26 crore on Tuesday, Rs 4,965.53 crore on Wednesday, Rs 7,449.77 crore on Thursday, and Rs 9,977.42 crore on Friday. The DII weekly total of Rs 37,740 crore was the only reason the index did not fall further.
The net picture: FIIs were selling at the fastest pace since the war began, DIIs were matching them rupee for rupee, and the market kept finding a floor, but at progressively lower levels each session.
How Many Stocks Were Actually Going Up
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: What the F&O Market Tells Us
The options data this week showed consistent bearish positioning with one brief interruption on Tuesday.
Monday's snapshot showed Nifty PCR at 0.81 with max pain at 23,900. Highest call OI was at 23,800 and highest put OI at 23,500, the entire options structure had shifted 1,500 points lower from the previous week in a single session.
By Tuesday, after the Trump comments and the bounce, PCR rose to 1.00 and max pain hit 24,200. Call and put OI were almost perfectly balanced at 28.09 crore and 28.13 crore respectively. This is a rare neutral reading, the market was genuinely uncertain about direction.
That uncertainty resolved fast. By Wednesday, PCR had fallen back to 0.64 with max pain at 24,150. Highest call OI was at 24,300 and highest put OI at 24,000. Call writers were aggressively capping any recovery.
By Friday March 13, PCR had dropped to 0.58, one of the lowest readings of the year. Max pain sat at 23,300. Total call OI was 17.78 crore versus put OI of just 10.25 crore. The lopsided call-to-put ratio tells you that option writers do not expect a significant recovery in the near term. A PCR below 0.60 consistently signals bearish market consensus.
For Bank Nifty, Friday's PCR closed at 0.75 with max pain at 54,100. Resistance sits at 55,000 and support at 53,500. Expiry for the March 17 weekly Nifty contract will be a critical test, with Nifty at 23,151 and max pain at 23,300, the gravitational pull is modestly higher but the trend is firmly down.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: IPO Tracker for March 8 to 14
IPO activity continued despite the market crash, though demand was heavily subdued for most issues.
Apsis Aerocom was the standout of the week. Its subscription closed on March 13 with 18 times overall subscription, the strongest response of any IPO this week by a wide margin. The defence and aerospace component maker benefitted directly from the war-driven defence sector narrative. Market cap is Rs 133 crore.
Rajputana Stainless closed subscription on March 11 with just 0.4 times subscription, a direct casualty of the market environment. The Rs 1,096 crore market cap company with a PE of 27.5 and ROCE of 37% had decent fundamentals but the timing worked against it. Listing is March 16.
RaajMarg Infra, which opened March 11, closed at just 0.2 times subscription by March 13. Infrastructure IPOs faced the worst sentiment of all, rising input costs from oil and weak market breadth killed investor appetite.
Innovision saw 0.3 times subscription on a listing target of March 17. Market cap Rs 1,359 crore with PE of 46.1 and ROCE of 38%.
Coming up: GSP Crop Science listing March 24 (PE 19.9, ROCE 23%), Novus Loyalty listing March 25 (PE 63.4, ROCE 45%).
| Company | M.Cap (Cr) | P/E | ROCE | Subscription |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfin Agro India | ₹91 | 18.0 | 36% | — |
| Srinibas Pradhan | ₹77 | 0.1x | ||
| Rajputana Stainless | ₹1096 | 27.5 | 37% | 0.4x |
| RaajMarg Infra | ₹ | 0.2x | ||
| Apsis Aerocom | ₹133 | 18x | ||
| Innovision | ₹1359 | 46.1 | 38% | 0.3x |
| GSP Crop Science | ₹1649 | 19.9 | 23% | — |
| Skyways Air Services | ₹ | 18% | — | |
| Novus Loyalty | ₹227 | 63.4 | 45% | — |
Key Events to Watch Next Week
| Event | Date | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | 16 Mar | -28 | -34.68 |
| HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash | 24 Mar | N/A | 56.9 |
| HSBC Services PMI Flash | 24 Mar | N/A | 58.1 |
| HSBC Composite PMI Flash | 24 Mar | N/A | 58.9 |
| Industrial Production YoY | 28 Mar | N/A | 4.8 |
| Manufacturing Production YoY | 28 Mar | N/A | 4.8 |
| RBI Interest Rate Decision | 8 Apr | N/A | 5.25 |
Indian Market Weekly Wrap: News That Moved Markets
Crude Hits $119.5, Nifty Posts Worst Week in 4 Years and Rupee Hits Record 92.39
Brent crude peaked at $119.5 per barrel intraweek as US-Iran conflict escalation threatened the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 to 50% of India's imported crude passes. India imports over 85% of its crude needs and has no short-term alternatives. The rupee fell to a fresh record low of 92.39 on Friday March 13. The combined damage to Nifty was 1,299 points across five sessions, the biggest weekly loss in four years. Total investor wealth erosion was estimated at Rs 20 lakh crore. Nomura and Citi both cut their year-end Nifty targets during the week, with Nomura lowering its projection to 24,900 from 29,300 and Citi reducing to 27,000 from 28,500.
India CPI Inflation Rises to 3.21% in February, Complicating RBI Rate Cut Path
India's retail CPI inflation for February 2026 came in at 3.21% on Thursday March 12, up from 2.75% in January and above economists' forecast of 3.10%. Food inflation rose to 3.47%. The data arrived in the same week that crude oil crossed $100 per barrel, a combination that Nomura described as challenging India's "Goldilocks narrative of strong growth and low inflation." The brokerage said it now expects the RBI to hold rates from here, ending expectations of further easing. The CPI print was above the RBI's earlier forecast trajectory and the oil-driven WPI pressures have not yet fed through fully into retail prices. Markets interpreted the data as removing a key support pillar, any hope of rate cuts providing relief to equities has faded for now.
Adani Total Gas Surges 39% in 4 Sessions as Government Issues Gas Supply Regulation Order
Adani Total Gas was one of the very few bright spots in an otherwise brutal week. The stock rallied approximately 39% across four consecutive sessions after the government issued the Natural Gas Supply Regulation Order 2026, which prioritises gas supply for PNG and CNG users amid fears of LNG shipment disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. GAIL also rallied sharply on supply security plays. The order gave gas distributors pricing power and supply certainty, which the market treated as a direct earnings upgrade. The rally happened against the backdrop of a falling Nifty, a rare example of geopolitical disruption creating a sector-specific winner within the Indian market.
Indian Market Weekly Wrap Outlook: Key Levels to Watch Next Week
Nifty ended this Indian Market Weekly Wrap period at 23,151.10 on Friday March 13. It is now approximately 10% below its 52-week high and sitting near levels last seen in May 2025.
The immediate support is 23,000. This is a round number and a psychologically significant level. The 100-week moving average is in this zone. A daily close below 23,000 opens the path to 22,500 and potentially 21,800, the next major structural support on the weekly chart.
On the upside, 24,000 is the first meaningful resistance. The index needs to reclaim and hold 24,000 on a closing basis before the bearish bias can shift to neutral. Above that, 24,450, the prior week's close, is the next level. That would represent a full recovery of this week's losses.
For Bank Nifty, 53,500 is the support. A breach there opens 52,000. Resistance is at 55,000.
The March 17 weekly options expiry is the first near-term event. PCR at 0.58 and max pain at 23,300 suggests the gravitational pull is modestly above current levels for expiry. However, the broader trend is down and any expiry bounce is likely to be sold.
The India Trade Balance data on March 16 will be watched. The forecast is an improvement to -$28 billion from -$34.68 billion. If the actual number is worse due to oil import costs, the rupee could see further pressure.
The RBI rate decision on April 8 is now the next major policy event on the calendar. With CPI at 3.21% and crude above $100, the market has fully priced out any rate cut. The risk is now whether the RBI signals a hold for an extended period, or whether an emergency meeting is convened if the rupee continues to weaken.
Bias for next week: bearish. The trend, the breadth, the FII flow, and the macro data all point the same direction. Until crude falls convincingly below $90 or a genuine ceasefire is announced, dip buying carries significant risk.
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